Hello everyone. Recently, I received private letters from my friends, saying that I would like to know about the low and peak seasons of air transportation. I thought, this is an interesting topic, so let’s discuss it together today.
First of all, first thing first. How is the peak season of air freight defined? In fact, it is a very simple summary. When there is a lot of stock, it is the peak season, and when there is no stock, it is the off-season. This is very intuitive. Hahaha. So are there any rules that can be caught in the off-peak season? There are some, but not every off-peak season is so regular.
In southern China, and even the whole country, our industry will have some so-called traditional peak seasons. For example, every year before Christmas, it starts around October, because European and American countries need to purchase a large number of holiday supplies in China. When everyone buys together, the logistics time will be relatively tight. Some of these festive items were shipped by ship, but at that time everyone shipped out, there were not enough cabinets, the time was tight, and the shipping schedule might not be suitable. And after the best shelf time, even if the goods arrive, they will not be able to sell for a good price at the destination. So at this time, some buyers will consider air freight. So there’s going to be a little climax on Christmas Eve.
For another example, on the eve of major long holidays, such as the National Day, the Spring Festival, and the eve of Labor Day, because the intermediate factories are closed, everyone wants to rush to ship before the festival. At this time, there will be another wave of small climax.
For another example, in September, European and American countries came back from their summer vacations, and they have to start restocking. And the goods ordered before the summer vacation are almost ready, so the September school season is also a small climax.
In our industry, at least in South China, there is a saying, “Seven poor and eight must be turned over”. I heard this sentence when I first entered the industry. It means that after a year, July begins to usher in the off-season, and there is no money to make. By August, everyone who has survived July can no longer support it. In September, the school season begins, eh, come back to life. Hahahaha. Is it interesting?
However, in today’s society, market information is changeable, and market demand is affected in many ways. Traditional thinking cannot be used to define the so-called off-peak season. So ah, everyone laughed at this sentence, how to do it. I remember maybe 2016? I don’t know if I remember correctly, but basically the whole year is off-season, and everyone complains a lot. Because the whole year, the market is like that, and everyone comes back to the office with a gloomy face every day. However, it’s finally over. Here, I also sincerely hope that the word “off-season” will never appear on everyone’s calendar.
So, what are the traditional off-seasons? The off-season is also quite obvious, when we are on vacation. For example, the Spring Festival, a few weeks before and after the Spring Festival, and after the National Day. At these times, especially during the Spring Festival, when the holiday has just ended, factories have not resumed work so quickly, and workers have not returned to work so quickly. It is estimated that many workers will fire their bosses and find jobs elsewhere. So this time is also a torment.
Careful friends may have found out, didn’t you just say that before the Spring Festival is the peak season, why now say that before the Spring Festival is the off-season? The little friends I found, give you a compliment, my heart is very careful. Different industries have different times for factories to stop work and resume work. Even in the same industry, different factories have different orders. Work starts when there is an order, and stops when there is no order. This is the status quo of Chinese factories. Therefore, those factories that are rushing to work before the festival will have goods out. If the factory cannot receive the order, it will stop work immediately, because the stoppage will not have to pay wages. It sounds cruel, but the reality is, I can’t receive orders, where can I pay my workers? Therefore, before the Spring Festival, some people think that the warehouse is going to explode, and some people think that their heads are going to explode. This is subject to factory shipments.
Well, after talking about the domestic situation, let’s look at the international market. After all, we are people who do international business. The so-called low and high seasons have their own characteristics in different regions, affected by different religions and different holidays. For example, the annual Ramadan in Muslim regions, Eid al-Fitr after Ramadan, Diwali in India, and the aforementioned Christmas and Christmas Eve )etc. These festivals will also have an impact on our shipments. We need to make corresponding market strategies in advance in different festivals for our main business or specialty routes. In the off-season that can be encountered, it is of great benefit to us to adjust the market strategy appropriately. Don’t crawl in a hurry. When the stock is suddenly out of stock, it is too late to worry any more.
In addition to religious/holiday influences, there are many things that can affect air freight shipments, resulting in the so-called “low season”. For example, political factors, global emergencies, etc. Although these situations may be temporary, everyone should be careful. Those who eat international business must have an international perspective. For example, I have tried before, in the Port of Messiah, a large number of container ships could not unload the containers, so some of the goods would have to be transported by air. This may lead to the explosion of air freight. Another example is the previous explosion at Istanbul Airport. The local airport has stepped up inspections of cargo and passengers, which will have an impact on cargo in the direction of Turkey.
By the way, it must be mentioned that when some big brands ship, it will also affect the shipment. For example, every time a big brand such as Foxconn/Huawei/Xiaomi wants to ship, everyone will say that it will be sold out, because these big brands have a lot of shipments and will occupy a lot of positions. Therefore, we must keep abreast of market dynamics at all times, and we can make adjustments in advance if we master this market information.
About the off-peak season of the market is probably so much. But in fact, after all, the current market is changing rapidly, so we can’t stick to the so-called “rules”, we must flexibly apply and constantly adjust the market strategy. This is the best way. After all, what determines the off-peak season is essentially the market demand. So back to the essence, when there is a lot of stock, it is the peak season, and when there is no stock, it is the off-season. What we want to discuss is not “when is the off-peak season”, but “what causes the off-peak season”. Remember, market demand (Market Demand) determines the air season.
Finally, I hope we are in peak season every day. Okay, that’s it for this issue, see you next time.